Travis Kelce easily leads both teams with a massive 28 red zone targets, including 16 inside the ten yard line. The image below contains red zone targets for only the regular season. Red zone targets and touches are also excellent indicators for this prop. Their defense ranked 16th in dropback and rush EPA/Play though, so there wasn’t a strength difference for the units. Meanwhile, opposing wide receivers and tight ends routinely gashed Kansas City for touchdowns. Philadelphia’s defense ranked 1st in dropback EPA/Play and 1st in pass DVOA but 23rd in rush EPA/Play and 21st in rush DVOA. They were slightly more vulnerable to running backs than wide receivers, but the advanced stats claim the gap is large. Philadelphia heavily limited running quarterbacks and tight ends by allowing a combined five touchdowns all year. The following table displays touchdowns allowed by position for the regular season and playoffs combined. Next, let’s break it down by position to see where defenses are vulnerable. They cannot count on that against this explosive Philadelphia squad though. Essentially, Kansas City’s defense is getting stops on their first drive and allowing Patrick Mahomes multiple chances to orchestrate the first touchdown. However, the Eagles vastly outperformed the surprisingly poor Chiefs at scoring a touchdown on their first drive of the game. The Chiefs and Eagles both scored the first touchdown of the game at an elite rate and own similar first quarter EPA/Play marks. The following table is for the regular season and playoffs combined. First Touchdown Prop Dataįirst, let’s look at broader team trends such as first touchdown rate, first drive touchdown rate, first quarter offensive expected points added per play (EPA/Play), and first quarter defensive EPA/Play. Vital decision-aiding data, predictions, and best bets can be found below.
Its popularity has boomed recently, and the long odds make it a potential cash cow.
It’s a battle between the top two touchdown scoring teams in the league, which sends an electric shock into the First Touchdown Scorer prop. The Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2023 Super Bowl. First Touchdown Prop Predictions & Best Bets.
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